Welcome to the CRE podcast. 100% Canadian, 100% commercial real estate. What if the global geopolitical churn is actually creating opportunities to realign your portfolio?
In this episode of the Commercial Real Estate Podcast, powered by First National, hosts Aaron Cameron and Adam Powadiuk are joined by Anthony Passarelli, Lead Economist for Southern Ontario at CMHC, to examine the forces reshaping rental housing markets across the region. Anthony explains how trade uncertainty, shifting demographics, and record levels of apartment construction are creating a temporary period of softer rents and rising vacancies in markets such as Hamilton, Kitchener, London, Windsor, and Niagara.
The conversation explores why this adjustment may present opportunities for long-term investors, the growing divide between purpose-built rentals and condo rentals, and the challenges developers face as projects become harder to finance. They also discuss government-backed lending programs, affordability concerns, and which Southern Ontario markets are best positioned for future growth.
What you will learn:
- How to evaluate investment timing across Southwest Ontario markets
- Why the “2-3 year softening window” represents opportunity, not crisis
- The critical difference between purpose-built and condo rental underwriting models
- How trade uncertainty acts as a psychological brake on housing decisions
- Why the unsustainable construction peak in London and Kitchener requires policy support.
- Why St. Catharines and Niagara lag behind Hamilton in rental construction
Anthony Passarelli is the Lead Economist for Southern Ontario at CMHC, specializing in commercial real estate market analysis across key regions including Hamilton, Kitchener, London, Niagara, and Windsor. With deep expertise in rental market dynamics, demographic trends, and economic policy impacts, Passarelli combines data-driven analysis with ground-level market intelligence gathered through extensive client engagement and presentations. In this episode, he provides critical insights into Southern Ontario’s rental market softening, the sustainability of current construction levels, and the long-term implications of trade tensions and demographic shifts on housing demand. His work at CMHC, including participation in multi-lender working committees and policy development, has shaped Canada’s approach to rental housing affordability.
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