Welcome to the CRE podcast, 100% Canadian, 100% commercial real estate. AI is reshaping commercial real estate, but the biggest barrier to adoption may not be technology; it may be fear.
In this episode of the Commercial Real Estate Podcast, powered by First National, hosts Aaron Cameron and Adam Powadiuk discuss the new challenges from rising rates for commercial real estate borrowers already navigating compressed lending spreads. Examine what the rapidly changing rate environment means for apartment construction, refinancing, CMHC financing, and conventional commercial lending.
They explore the risks facing loans originated in 2022, why CMHC policy changes could further constrain leverage, and how owners can build resilience through longer-term debt, diversified portfolios, staggered maturities, and conservative underwriting. The conversation offers practical strategies for navigating refinancing and development decisions in uncertain markets.
What You Will Learn:
- Why compressed spreads mean there’s no “relief valve” to cushion rising bond yields
- How to assess refinancing risk on 2022-vintage CMHC loans facing negative-leverage paydowns at maturity
- The case for locking in longer terms (10-year vs. 5-year) to ride out unpredictable rate cycles
- Why CMHC’s energy efficiency and affordability rule changes are quietly shrinking the MLI Select program
- How conventional lending’s lower leverage and higher debt service coverage create more of a buffer against rate shocks
- Why diversified, multi-asset portfolios with staggered debt maturities help owners absorb rate volatility
- The importance of underwriting on flat assumptions rather than betting on future rent or rate movements
- How foreign buyer tax changes and immigration policy could offer longer-term tailwinds for condo and rental demand
Episode Reference:
- Adam Powadiuk on LinkedIn
- Aaron Cameron on LinkedIn
- Commercial Real Estate Podcast on Apple Podcasts
- Commercial Real Estate Podcast on Spotify
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